Paper
How is the job market? Separating AI hype from reality
There is currently little evidence that AI is causing mass unemployment. The unemployment rate for high AI-exposure occupations has risen by only 0.77 percentage points, even less than the 0.85 percentage point increase for low-exposure occupations. The impact of AI on worker productivity is mixed but generally positive, with adoption accelerating but unevenly distributed. Early-career workers (e.g., software developers) in AI-exposed roles have seen a notable decline in employment since ChatGPT's release, described by researchers as a "canary in the coal mine."
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